THE EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL CRISES ON FOREIGN TRADE: A LOGIT TRIAL FOR TURKEY

Özet

Together with development of financial markets, the vulnerability level of economies increased much more and markets became more sensitive to the changes – especially unexpected changes- experienced. Crises experienced play key role, for after the process they appear, in the sense of being able to understand and predict the possible crises. Models and approaches, shaped in the axis of the features crises contain, shed an important light on crisis literature. The development of financial markets has made it more inevitable for risk factors to become more prominent in these markets.
An important indicator of the effects of financial crises on the real sector is the export rate. The level of exports, which may be extremely sensitive to changes in the wake of the financial crisis, may change in the negative direction during or after the financial crisis period. The main aim of this study is to set out the dynamics of the financial crisis and to set out the possibility of realizing the financial crisis with the help of a logit model by taking the lead indicators that are accepted in the literature related to the pre-crisis process.
As a result of the analysis, a unit increase in domestic credits and real exchange rate caused exports to decrease by 0.002 and 0.003 units respectively. On the other hand, the increase in M2 / reserves, interest rates and the probability of crisis is 0.023 for exports; 0.003 and 0.53 units, respectively