PREDICTING THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN TURKEY WITH S.I.R. MODEL

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus is also known as COVID-2019 (Sars-Cov-2) have been emerged and firstly identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and now continues to spread fears and anxious all over the world. On March 11, the World Health Organization classified this new coronavirus type as a "pandemic" (epidemic). It has spread to more than 180 countries and territories and the number of people who died worldwide due to the coronavirus has exceeded 160 thousand. Sustained transmission of the Covid-19 around the World has urged many governments to take various measures in fighting coronavirus outbreak. The spread of Covid-19 can be critically reduced by the social distancing and other no pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in the absence of the vaccines. World Health Organization reported that infection of Covid-19 occurs mainly through direct contact between people.
This article presents the classical mathematical S.I.R. model to estimate how long Covid-19 survive on and to provide more information about measures applied in Turkey. Our results present basic implications for Turkey economy facing severe threats from COVID-19 crisis.